Tuesday, September 1, 2020

Why Indus Water Treaty of 1960 has become a Ticking Bomb for India?


 

Pakistan is an agricultural country and 70 percent of its population is directly or indirectly dependent on agriculture. The main source of irrigation in Pakistan is the Indus River System.

The Indus System of Rivers comprises three western rivers — the Indus, the Jhelum and Chenab — and three eastern rivers — Sutlej, Beas and Ravi. During partition a SERIOUS injustice happened with Pakistan. Madhopur Headworks which controls the water of Ravi River and Ferozepur Headworks which controls the water of Sutlej River were allotted to India. And the sources of Jhelum and Chenab were in Kashmir which was illegally occupied by India.  In April 1948,  about eight months after the partition. The East Punjab province of India shut off water running to the West Punjab province of Pakistan from the Ferozepur Headworks. It was resumed after five weeks when Pakistan was forced to attend an Inter-Dominion conference to negotiate an agreement. That accord enabled India to release sufficient waters to the Pakistani regions of the basin in return for “Annual payments” from the government of Pakistan.

The critical nature of the Indian action caused deep apprehensions in Pakistan. Pakistan felt acutely threatened by a conflict over the main source of water for its cultivable land. Pakistan wanted to take the matter at that time to the International Court of Justice, but India refused, arguing that the conflict required a bilateral resolution.

In 1954, the World bank, after nearly two years of negotiation, offered  proposals, The proposals offered India the three eastern tributaries of the basin and Pakistan the three western tributaries. Canals and storage dams were to be constructed to divert waters from the western rivers and replace the eastern river supply lost by Pakistan. This new distribution did not account for the historical usage of the Indus basin, or the fact that West Punjab's Eastern districts could turn into desert, Pakistan felt that its share of waters should be based on pre-partition distribution. The World Bank proposals were more in line with the Indian plan and this angered the Pakistani delegation. One of the last stumbling blocks to an agreement concerned financing for the construction of canals and storage facilities This transfer was necessary to make up for the water Pakistan was giving up by ceding its rights to the eastern rivers. The World Bank initially planned for India to pay for these works, but India refused. The Bank responded with a plan for external financing a combination of funds and loans for Pakistan. In 1960 Pakistan was forced to sign the Indus Water Treaty, because Pakistan had no other option and was not ready to go to war with India to settle water dispute. This treaty triggered a series of Destruction in Pakistan.

      1st Pakistan lost its rights over 3 Eastern rivers. And Pakistan was forced to divert waters from western rivers into the Eastern rivers. It caused serious reduction of Indus river water flow in Sindh region and  caused water shortage for irrigation. Not only this, it disturbed the balance of fresh and marine water flow in coastal regions of Sindh and intrusion of sea water.According to a research, 2.4 million acres of the Indus delta has been invaded by the sea and it is feared that if the present rate of sea erosion continues, the whole of Shah Bunder tehsil will vanish by 2035 and the sea will reach Thatta city by 2050.

There is a need to release at least 10 MAF water downstream Kotri to stop increasing sea intrusion. But Pakistan has no water.

.2nd  New reservoirs and canals which were constructed to divert water from Western rivers into the Eastern Rivers caused Water logging and Salinity in related areas and affected thousands of acres of lands in Pakistan. It took decades to tackle this problem, by extensive planting of trees that consume large amounts of water. Such plantations helped to tackle the problem of  water logging but in later years, due to shortage of water in reservoirs ,such trees rapidly reduced the underground water level.

 3rd India who has full control of all the three eastern rivers  Releases unlimited amount of flood water in days of flood. Such release of huge amounts of flood water, occasionally cause destruction of land crops, and loss of lives and property. 

4th Water reservoirs built under this treaty, proved temporary arrangement.  With passage of time high amount of silt reduced the storage capacity of these reservoirs and caused serious shortage of water. Removal of silt or building other reservoirs, require a lot of money.

5th, drawing water from western rivers into the eastern rivers also caused shortage of water in Kashmir region because these regions were not allowed to construct large water storages. It hindered the agricultural development there. And It also brought Kashmiris in confrontation with Pakistan on water shortage issue.

6th. In order to tackle water shortage issue, in Indian occupied Kashmir, India has developed and is still developing extensive system of structures to stop and store the streams that are source of this western river system.  This has further reduced the flow of water in western rivers, and indirectly drying the Pakistani eastern rivers. 

Shortage of water, and due to this shortage , reduction of cultivatable land, reduction of agricultural produce, droughts, famines, floods, erosion, water logging, salinity, sea intrusion, destruction of infrastructure and wastage of resources to deal such issues are SERIOUSLY AFFECTING the Pakistan’s economic growth and development to such an extent that it seems more easy to go to  war with India for the control of water resources rather than continuously exhausting its resources in dealing such unending issues.

Why Indus Water Treaty of 1960 has become a Ticking Bomb for India?
by Zaheeruddin Babar

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Thursday, July 9, 2020

The Moon Landing








1.       1.Technology has lost.


NaziGermany’s ambitious vengeance weapon Program developed V2 Rocket. It was the world's first long-range  guidedballistic missile. The V-2 rocket was also thefirst artificial object to travel into space by crossing the Kármánline with the vertical launch on 20 June 1944. Over 3,000 V-2s were
launched by the German Wehrmacht against Allied targets. Thousands of experts,scientists, engineers and technicians, worked day and night on this project.Production and launch of such large number of world’s most advanced Rockets, inrelatively very short period of time enabled the project related  scientists, engineers, and technicians toachieve the level of skill and expertise that is very hard to achieve undernormal circumstances.Wernher Braun a German aerospace engineer and space architect, was the leading figure in the development of rocket technology in Nazi Germany.

Following the war he was secretly brought to the United States, along withabout 1,600 other German scientists, engineers, and technicians, as part of Operation Paperclip. He worked for the United States Army on an intermediate-range ballisticmissile program, and he developed the rockets that launched the UnitedStates' first space satellite Explorer 1. In 1960, his group was assimilated into NASA, where he servedas director of the newly formed Marshall Space Flight Center and asthe chief architect of the Saturn V super heavy-lift launch vehiclethat propelled the Apollo spacecraft to the Moon. As of 2020, theSaturn V remains the tallest, heaviest, and most powerful (highest total
impulse
) rocket ever brought to operational status, and holds records forthe heaviest payload launched and largest payload capacity of 140,000 kg .Todate, the Saturn V remains the only launch vehicle to carry humans beyond lowEarth orbit. A total of 15 flight-capable vehicles were built, but only 13 wereflown. An additional three vehicles were built for ground testing purposes. A total of 24 astronauts were launched tothe Moon in the four years spanning December 1968 through December 1972. As thelargest production model of the Saturn family of rockets, the Saturn V was designed under the direction of Wernhervon Braun at the Marshall Space Flight Center.

 Although Wernher von Braun was working for US but previously being the part of Nazi Army he and his team worked secretly.They kept all the technology secret. All the work was done manually with hands,and all the related blue prints were made in such a manner that no one other than  those who made blue prints couldunderstand. We can say that the real blue prints were in the brains of thosescientists and engineers who were working under Braun.Wernher von Braun and all his team members arenow passed away. There is no one who could understand and could built all those hardware again. Humans cannot land on moon again because the present space tech and expertise are still far behind and insufficient to build space hardware of such a scale that can take humans beyond even Lower Earth Orbit.

2.    
2.Lack of economic and human Resources.

During2nd WW Germany provided all the available resources from all theoccupied lands required for the development and production of such an ambitiouslarge scale project. Not only this, Germany inducted hundreds and thousands ofwar prisoners to complete the project in given time. After War, US also dedicatedunlimited budget, resources and man power for the missile and space program. At
present, no country or group of country is in a position to provide unlimitedresources as were provided by Nazi Germany and USA for the development andproduction of such space missions.

3.    
3.Preference to Cheapest and easiest instead of
Best of the Best.

Uptill 70s, most of the scientists, engineers and technicians were seeking forthe perfectness, for the best of the best. This resulted in production of highquality components with maximum reliability and longer life span. Quality andreliability were the  KEY FEATURES thatenabled men to land on Moon. They hardly care for the cost or the extra hardwork or time. Such components were easy to maintain, easily repairable and werevery reliable. But now things are produced by keeping in mind the profit from its production. These products work only for a very short period of time, hardto repair and usually require continuous replacement or up gradations aftershort periods of time. Such components are very sensitive and are  easily damaged.    Scientists of Nazi Germany who were working for USA and USSR want to achieve Perfectness. They never compromised on quality. Even after the defeat of Nazi Germany, these scientists continued their research and tried to achieve the highest level of Perfectness. And this is how they  achieved their goals and
turned the impossible into possible.

Three reasons,
Why Human beings can never Land on Moon again.

 by Zaheer uddin Babar



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Friday, June 26, 2020

Causality Superhuman Ability

 

 




We know only tiny fragment of what is occurring in the world, an even smaller fragment of the past, and have yet to witness the future. For every event there is a set of conditions that were sufficient to produce it, otherwise it would not have occurred. There is only one constant, one universal, It is the only real truth, the causality, action- reaction, cause and effect, there is no escape from it.
When we look at external objects, and consider the operation of causes we are never able, in a single instance, to discover any power or necessary connection; any quality, which binds the effect to the cause and renders the one an infallible consequence of the other.
Human Mind cannot grasp the whole complex web of cause and effect that is going around us all the time. That’s why humans cannot predict the future events   accurately.
But suppose there is a Super Being, who has Mind more powerful than average human mind and which can observe   all the causes and effects in a very short time and thus can predict the future precisely and accurately.




Suppose this Super Being is a Death Angel who has come to take the Life of a Beautiful lady who is walking on a road, seems perfectly healthy and happy. Nothing is wrong with her and no human being can imagine that this beautiful lady is soon going to die. Death Angel sees his target, carefully notes all the details of her, and began to calculate her future moves, He sees that his Target is interested in buying some flowers; She picks some flowers of her choice and then enters inside the shop for packing and payment of the flowers. Meanwhile the Death Angel continues to study the environment all around his target. The traffic light at the square is red. There is a bus coming towards the square. Death Angel notices fruit vendor outside the flower shop and next to it a roadside painter sitting with a cup of tea in his hand and busy in reading something. In opposite to that painter on the road near the foot path is a Letter Box, and near that letter box is a water leakage and water is standing on the road, whenever a vehicle passes from near the Letter Box, water splashes and Letter box starts to vibrate.  A person is riding on a bicycle and a cab is coming, within few moments the Death Angel completes his calculation and places a pencil on the top of the letter box in a standing position.
Bicycle rider is approaching at fast speed. Lady comes out from the shop with flowers in her hand. She walks towards the square to reach at the crossing point.  Cab passes from near the letter box, water splash happens, and Letter box began to vibrate.   Due to this vibration the Pencil fells on the footpath in front of the painter.
Painter notices this pencil, and bends towards it in order to pick it but at the same moment the bicycle rider collides with him and a little accident happens, bicycle rider fells on the fruits, and fruits fell and scatter on the foot path. People gather there at the incident, some help the fruit vendor to pick the fruits, some help the bicycle rider and some try to stop the argument between bicycle rider and painter. During this time our Lady has reached near the crossing point on the road, She also notices the bicycle rider incident, meanwhile the Bus passes on the road, the Driver gets distracted by the gathering at the accident spot, and fails to notice that traffic signal has changed. The Lady began to cross the road, but the driver is distracted, he fails to notice the signal and the Lady who is crossing the road. The lady gets hit by the bus and dies on the spot. Death Angel finishes his job and goes away.
This is just an example how the knowledge of causality can give immense power and control over the flow of events.  But this requires a Mind which can observe the whole complex web of causality within few moments. Right now no person or computer has such level of observation and prediction skill. But we human beings are continuously trying to improve our understandings regarding these processes. We know that we cannot fully understand the whole causality web, but we can study the events of the past and can try to find out the relation of those events with the present and then try to predict the future.
But the problem is that any prediction deteriorates rapidly. Errors and uncertainties multiply within moments. A slightest error or little mistake in calculations is enough to change the result of the Prediction.

This is the biggest hurdle that stops the human beings to evolve into Super Beings.

CAUSALITY A SUPERHUMAN ABILITY

By Zaheer uddin Babar


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